November 2022 – CGW's Blog

Merchants of Doubt

The modern era of fighting facts with doubt began on Dec. 15, 1953.

Months earlier, landmark research from Sloan-Kettering showed cigarette tar gave mice fatal cancers, and the attention was widespread. The research wasn’t even groundbreaking. In the 1930s, Nazi scientists documented cigarette dangers — but, you know, they were Nazis, so polite Allied researchers weren’t keen to rely on them. That’s why this new research from a credible American institution was so damning.

To combat this, the tobacco industry met at a New York hotel that day to decide to actively discredit the research. Not engage in it, not to adapt the product but just to muddy the waters. A now infamous internal trade memo in 1969 said “doubt is our product.” This strategy was then repeated again and again. It was employed by organizations such as the Marshall Institute, which pushed for the “balanced” coverage of the Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI, also known as “Star Wars”) and climate change. That’s what one-time Trump ally Steve Bannon meant when he advised political campaigns to “flood the zone with shit.”

This work and the men behind it is the focus of the influential 2010 book “Merchants of Doubt,” written by by Erik M. Conway and Naomi Oreskes and made into a movie. discusses the tactics used by various organizations to challenge scientific consensus and sow doubt in the minds of the general public, with a focus on the tobacco and defense industries. It highlights the dangers of giving equal weight to both sides of an issue, regardless of the strength of the evidence supporting each side.

More than a decade later the book is enlightening, My notes from the book are below.

Finding your ikigai

I was first Introduced to the Japanese concept of “ikigai” while studying in Tokyo in 2006. It may have shaped me subtly but I missed much of the meaning.

In recent years, this approach to finding a purpose has gotten much Western attention, and I’ve found it much more important to me at this stage of my life. A few years back I wrote down what I feel my ikigai is today and follow it. I recently read the 2016 book “Ikigai: The Japanese Secret to a Long and Happy Life” by Francesc Miralles and Hector Garcia and found their translation of the concept refreshing.

One of the ways to find ikigai is by following the habits of the so-called “Blue Zones,” which are areas of the world with the highest concentrations of centenarians (people who live to be 100 or older). The Blue Zones have certain things in common, such as a diet low in calories and rich in vegetables, a strong sense of purpose and social connections, and regular physical activity.

Another important aspect of ikigai is the idea of “hara hachi bu,” which means eating until you are 80% full. This concept comes from Okinawa, Japan, and is believed to help people live longer, healthier lives.

The book also discusses the importance of mental training and stress management for overall well-being. The American Institute of Stress has found that many health problems are caused by stress, and it’s important to find ways to manage it.

In addition to physical and mental well-being, the book emphasizes the importance of finding flow and living in the present moment. The concept of “flow,” as defined by Mihaly Csikszentmihalyi, refers to a state of complete immersion in an activity.

Finally, the book discusses the idea of resiliency and anti-fragility, which involve the ability to adapt and thrive in the face of adversity. This is similar to the teachings of Stoicism, a philosophy that emphasizes the importance of accepting what we cannot control and focusing on what we can control.

Overall, “Ikigai” is a clarifying and inspiring book that offers practical advice for finding purpose and living a fulfilling life.

Guns, Germs and Steel: notes from the 1997 classic

The distribution of productive grains and domestic-friendly animals was highly concentrated. This explains a vast amount of the inequality we face today.

That argument was made famous in the classic 1997 book “Guns, Germs and Steel,” written by Jared Diamond. The book’s case is so influential that I’ve seen it routinely referenced across dozens of books and articles I’ve read. I wanted to return to the source so I finally read the original book. It was even wider in scope than I realized.

Diamond posits that the root of cultural differences can be traced back to geographical and environmental factors, including the availability of domesticable plants and animals, the presence of diseases, and the ability to develop and spread technology.

One key point made by Diamond is that the availability of domesticable plants and animals played a significant role in the development of societies. For example, the Fertile Crescent, which includes the Middle East, had a wealth of domesticable grains and animals, such as goats, sheep, cows, and pigs, which allowed for the development of farming and the creation of larger, denser populations. In contrast, regions like Mesoamerica had fewer domesticable species and struggled to develop farming at the same rate.

Diamond also discusses the impact of disease on human societies, particularly the way that farming and larger, denser populations facilitated the spread of germs. In many cases, European colonizers brought diseases with them to the Americas and other regions, leading to devastating epidemics among indigenous populations. However, in a few exceptional cases, Diamond also notes that indigenous diseases decimated European colonizers and their livestock, as was the case in the tropics.

Finally, Diamond examines the role of technology in the development of societies, noting that the presence of metalworking and writing, for example, can be linked to the success of certain societies. Overall, Diamond’s “Guns, Germs and Steel” offers a thought-provoking examination of the complex factors that have shaped human history.

Portions of his wide-sweeping argument have been challenged. Nothing so simple is ever perfect. But it’s still provocative and important.

Find my notes from the classic below.

How will the world end?

Given our odds, it’s a lot more likely the human species will go extinct long before Earth itself is destroyed. Funny that we don’t given that chilling nuance more thought.

The 2019 book “End Times” by journalist Bryan Walsh discusses various potential catastrophes that could threaten humanity’s survival. One of the main points made in the book is that humans have a tendency to underestimate the likelihood and consequences of catastrophic events, and that we should be more proactive in addressing potential threats to our survival. Fitting that the book was published before the covid-19 pandemic was identified.

The book covers a range of topics, including the risk of a nuclear war or environmental disaster, the possibility of an asteroid impact, the threat of pandemics and epidemics, and the long-term consequences of climate change. It also explores the psychological and economic factors that influence our ability to address these issues, such as the “arithmetic of compassion” and the social discount rate.

I found the book a mix of big-picture thinking and practical evaluation, a thought-provoking reminder of the fragility of human civilization and the importance of being prepared for potential disasters.

I shared below my notes from reading the book.